Britische Unterhauswahl 2019
Die nächsten Britischen Unterhauswahlen werden, vorbehaltlich der vorzeitigen Auflösung des Unterhauses, am 5. Mai 2022 stattfinden. Gewählt werden die 650 Abgeordneten des Britischen Unterhauses.
Ausgangslage
Bei der Unterhauswahl 2017 konnte die Conservative Party ihren Platz als stärkste Partei verteidigen, verpasste jedoch ihre seit 2010 bestehende absolute Mehrheit um 10 Sitze. Ihre Regierung war fortan auf die Unterstützung durch die nordirische Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) angewiesen. Die Labour Party konnte ihren Stimmenanteil noch stärker auf 40 % steigern und gewann 30 Sitze hinzu, verpasste es jedoch, die Conservative Party an der Regierung abzulösen. Leichte Zugewinne gab es bei den Liberal Democrats, welche ihre Anzahl Sitze von 8 auf 12 steigern konnten sowie bei den nordirischen Parteien Democratic Unionist Party sowie Sinn Fein, welche auf Kosten der nun aus dem Unterhaus ausgeschiedenen Parteien Social Democratic and Labour Party und Ulster Unionist Party Sitze hinzugewannen und nun neben einem unabhängigen Abgeordneten die einzigen Parteien aus Nordirland im britischen Unterhaus sind. Die Scottish National Party (SNP) verlor insbesondere aufgrund ihrer beim Volk mittlerweile unbeliebt gewordenen Unabhängigkeitsbemühungen 21 ihrer bislang 56 Sitze. Die UK Independence Party (UKIP) verlor fast 11 Prozentpunkte und ihren einzigen Sitz im Unterhaus.
Wahlverfahren
Die Wahlen finden nach dem relativen Mehrheitswahlrecht in 650 einzelnen Wahlkreisen statt. Der Kandidat mit der höchsten Wählerstimmenzahl in jedem Wahlkreis gewinnt (first-past-the-post); einen zweiten Wahlgang gibt es nicht. Die Wahlkreisgrenzen sind seit 2010 unverändert. Eine insbesondere von den Konservativen propagierte Reduzierung der Abgeordnetenzahl und der Wahlkreise auf 600 ist auf frühestens 2018 aufgeschoben worden.[1]
Die Wahllokale sind von 7 bis 22 Uhr geöffnet.
Umfragen
Auf die Frage, wie sich die britischen Wähler entscheiden würden, wäre demnächst Unterhauswahl, antworteten die Befragten wie folgt (Nordirland ist in den Umfragen meist nicht enthalten):
| Datum | Institut | Region | Befragte | Con | Labour | LibDems | SNP | Plaid | UKIP | Green | TIG | Brexit | Sonstige | Vorsprung |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 May | ComRes/The Daily Telegraph | — | — | 19% | 27% | 14% | 5% | — | 3% | 5% | 7% | 20% | — | 7% |
| 8 May | Opinium | — | — | 22% | 28% | 11% | 4% | — | 4% | 6% | 4% | 21% | — | 6% |
| 2 May | Kommunalwahlen im Vereinigten Königreich 2019 | |||||||||||||
| 29–30 Apr | YouGov | GB | 1,630 | 29% | 29% | 13% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 15% | 1% | Gleichstand | |
| 23–24 Apr | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,787 | 27% | 30% | 11% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 14% | 1% | 3% | |
| 18–24 Apr | Panelbase/The Sunday Times | GB | 2,030 | 27% | 36% | 8% | 4% | — | 5% | 3% | 4% | 13% | 1% | 9% |
| 21–23 Apr | Opinium/The Observer | GB | 1,218 | 26% | 33% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 17% | — | 7% |
| 17 Apr | OnePoll/The Sun on Sunday | UK | 2,000 | 24% | 33% | 9% | 4% | — | 5% | 5% | 5% | 14% | 2% | 9% |
| 16–17 Apr | ORB/The Daily Telegraph | UK | 1,547 | 26% | 29% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 14% | 4% | 3% |
| 16–17 Apr | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,755 | 29% | 30% | 10% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 12% | 2% | 1% | |
| 16 Apr | ComRes/Brexit Express | GB | 1,061 | 23% | 33% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 9% | 14% | 1% | 10% |
| 9–12 Apr | Opinium/The Observer | GB | 2,007 | 29% | 36% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 11% | 4% | — | — | 6% | 7% |
| 10–11 Apr | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,843 | 28% | 32% | 11% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 8% | 2% | 4% | |
| 5–8 Apr | Hanbury Strategy | GB | 2,000 | 31% | 40% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 8% | 5% | — | — | 4% | 9% |
| 4–8 Apr | Kantar Public | GB | 1,172 | 32% | 35% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 7% | 4% | — | — | 6% | 3% |
| 3–8 Apr | Survation | E+W | 6,062 | 37% | 41% | 10% | — | 1% | 7% | 2% | 1% | — | 2% | 4% |
| 5–7 Apr | ComRes/The Daily Telegraph | GB | 2,018 | 32% | 32% | 7% | 3% | — | 9% | 3% | 9% | — | 4% | Gleichstand |
| 2–5 Apr | BMG/The Independent | GB | 1,500 | 29% | 31% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 4% | 8% | 6% | 1% | 2% |
| 2–5 Apr | BMG/The Independent | GB | 1,500 | 35% | 34% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 5% | — | — | 3% | 1% |
| 4 Apr | Nachwahl in Newport West[2] | |||||||||||||
| 2–3 Apr | YouGov | GB | 1,771 | 32% | 31% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 7% | — | 5% | 3% | 1% |
| 28–30 Mar | Deltapoll/The Mail on Sunday | GB | 1,010 | 32% | 35% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 9% | — | 7% | 3% |
| 28–30 Mar | Deltapoll/The Mail on Sunday | GB | 1,010 | 36% | 41% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 3% | — | — | 3% | 5% |
| 28–29 Mar | Opinium/The Observer | GB | 2,008 | 35% | 35% | 9% | 4% | 0% | 9% | 5% | — | — | 3% | Gleichstand |
| 24–25 Mar | YouGov/The Times | GB | 2,110 | 36% | 33% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 4% | — | 5% | 2% | 3% |
| 22–24 Mar | ComRes/Leave Means Leave | GB | 2,030 | 33% | 33% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 3% | 9% | — | 3% | Gleichstand |
| 22 Mar | Nigel Farage wird Vorsitzender der neu gegründeten Brexit Party[3] | |||||||||||||
| 20–22 Mar | Opinium/The Observer | GB | 2,002 | 36% | 35% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 9% | 4% | — | — | 3% | 1% |
| 20–21 Mar | ComRes/Daily Express | GB | 2,063 | 34% | 35% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 7% | 4% | 6% | — | 4% | 1% |
| 15–19 Mar | Ipsos MORI | GB | 1,050 | 38% | 34% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| 15–17 Mar | ComRes/The Daily Telegraph | GB | 2,033 | 34% | 35% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 7% | — | 3% | 1% |
| 15 Mar | Survation/Daily Mail | UK | 1,007 | 35% | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 5% | 4% | — | — | 2% | 4% |
| 14–15 Mar | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,756 | 35% | 31% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 6% | — | 4% | 2% | 4% |
| 14–15 Mar | YouGov/People's Vote | GB | 1,823 | 35% | 33% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 6% | — | — | 6% | 2% |
| 13–15 Mar | Opinium/The Observer | GB | 2,003 | 35% | 35% | 7% | 5% | 0% | 8% | 4% | 4% | — | 2% | Gleichstand |
| 12–15 Mar | Opinium/The Observer | GB | 1,952 | 38% | 34% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 8% | 3% | — | — | 3% | 4% |
| 7–11 Mar | Kantar Public | GB | 1,152 | 41% | 31% | 8% | 5% | — | 6% | 6% | — | — | 2% | 10% |
| 4–8 Mar | BMG | GB | 1,504 | 37% | 31% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 5% | 5% | — | 1% | 6% |
| 4–8 Mar | BMG | GB | 1,503 | 39% | 34% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 4% | — | — | 2% | 5% |
| 4–5 Mar | ComRes/Brexit Express | GB | 2,042 | 36% | 34% | 8% | 3% | — | 6% | 3% | 8% | — | 2% | 2% |
| 3–4 Mar | YouGov/The Times | GB | 2,172 | 40% | 31% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 3% | — | 3% | 3% | 9% |
| 26 Feb–1 Mar | Opinium/The Guardian | GB | 2,004 | 37% | 33% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 7% | 4% | 5% | — | 2% | 4% |
| 26 Feb–1 Mar | Opinium/The Observer | GB | 1,948 | 40% | 34% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 7% | 3% | — | — | 3% | 6% |
| 22–23 Feb | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,672 | 41% | 30% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 5% | — | 2% | 3% | 11% |
| 22–23 Feb | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,672 | 36% | 23% | 6% | — | — | — | — | 18% | — | 16% | 13% |
| 21–23 Feb | Deltapoll/The Mail on Sunday | GB | 1,027 | 39% | 31% | 5% | 5% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 11% | — | 1% | 8% |
| 21–23 Feb | Deltapoll/The Mail on Sunday | GB | 1,027 | 43% | 36% | 6% | 4% | 0% | 5% | 3% | — | — | 2% | 7% |
| 20–22 Feb | Opinium | GB | 2,008 | 40% | 32% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 7% | 4% | 6% | — | 2% | 8% |
| 19 Feb | Sky Data | GB | 1,034 | 32% | 26% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 4% | 10% | — | 7% | 6% |
| 18–19 Feb | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,861 | 38% | 26% | 7% | — | — | — | — | 14% | — | 15% | 12% |
| 18–19 Feb | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,861 | 41% | 33% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 4% | — | — | 2% | 8% |
| 18 Feb | Survation/Daily Mail | UK | 1,023 | 39% | 34% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 8% | — | 1% | 5% |
| 18 Feb | Survation/Daily Mail | UK | 1,023 | 40% | 36% | 10% | 3% | — | 5% | 2% | — | — | 5% | 4% |
| 18–20 Feb | 8 Abgeordnete der Labour Party and 3 Abgeordnete der Conservative Party treten aus ihren Parteien aus und gründen The Independent Group[4] | |||||||||||||
| 13–15 Feb | Opinium/The Observer | GB | 2,005 | 37% | 37% | 8% | 4% | 0% | 7% | 4% | — | — | 2% | Gleichstand |
| 7–11 Feb | Kantar Public | GB | 1,145 | 40% | 35% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 4% | — | — | 3% | 5% |
| 4–8 Feb | BMG | GB | 1,503 | 38% | 35% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 5% | — | — | 1% | 3% |
| 1–5 Feb | Ipsos MORI | GB | 1,005 | 38% | 38% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 3% | — | — | 3% | Gleichstand |
| 3–4 Feb | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,851 | 41% | 34% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 4% | — | — | 2% | 7% |
| 30 Jan–1 Feb | Opinium/The Observer | GB | 1,952 | 41% | 34% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 7% | 4% | — | — | 1% | 7% |
| 30 Jan | Survation/Daily Mail | UK | 1,029 | 38% | 39% | 9% | 3% | — | 4% | 2% | — | — | 4% | 1% |
| 23–25 Jan | Opinium/People's Vote | GB | 2,001 | 40% | 36% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 7% | 4% | — | — | 1% | 4% |
| 16–18 Jan | ICM | GB | 2,046 | 39% | 40% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 5% | 3% | — | — | 1% | 1% |
| 16–18 Jan | Opinium/The Observer | GB | 2,006 | 37% | 40% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 7% | 4% | — | — | 1% | 3% |
| 16–17 Jan | ComRes/Sunday Express | GB | 2,031 | 38% | 37% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 3% | — | — | 2% | 1% |
| 10–17 Jan | Number Cruncher Politics | GB | 1,030 | 41% | 39% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 2% | — | — | 1% | 2% |
| 14–15 Jan | ComRes/Daily Express | GB | 2,010 | 37% | 39% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 3% | — | — | 1% | 2% |
| 13–14 Jan | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,701 | 39% | 34% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 4% | — | — | 1% | 5% |
| 10–14 Jan | Kantar | GB | 1,106 | 35% | 38% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 4% | — | — | 3% | 3% |
| 10–11 Jan | Survation/Daily Mail | UK | 1,013 | 38% | 41% | 10% | 3% | — | 4% | 2% | — | — | 3% | 3% |
| 8–11 Jan | BMG/The Independent | GB | 1,514 | 36% | 36% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 5% | — | — | 1% | Gleichstand |
| 6–7 Jan | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,656 | 41% | 35% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 3% | — | — | 1% | 6% |
| 21 Dec–4 Jan | YouGov/People's Vote | UK | 25,537 | 40% | 34% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 4% | — | — | 2% | 6% |
Einzelnachweise
- ↑ Conservatives lose boundary review vote. In: BBC News online. 29. Januar 2013, abgerufen am 5. Juni 2017 (englisch).
- ↑ Newport West By-election results | Newport City Council. In: www.newport.gov.uk. Abgerufen am 22. April 2019.
- ↑ PoliticsHome.com: Nigel Farage will lead new Brexit party as founding boss quits over anti-Islam tweets. In: PoliticsHome.com. 22. März 2019, abgerufen am 22. April 2019 (englisch).
- ↑ Seven MPs leave Labour in Corbyn protest, 18. Februar 2019. Abgerufen am 22. April 2019 (britisches Englisch).
